• Fractal Value Advisors
    Beyond Earnings
    David Holland’s book on company valuation is available on Amazon
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    Cash is king and earnings are an opinion.
    We help you determine the value of your company.
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    Which business strategy is most valuable?
    We help with capital allocation decisions.
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    We help improve investor relations.
    Do you have the right shareholders and do they understand the value of your business?
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    We value and advise on M&A plans and asset disposals
    Most acquisitions destroy value for the acquirer.
    We’ll help you avoid that mistake.
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    We advise on dividend, debt, and share repurchase policies.
    Are you doing what’s best for stakeholders?
  • Fractal Value Advisors
    We model highly uncertain strategic decisions.
    Let Decision Analysis guide strategic decisions, not your gut.

A company should only grow if it can beat its cost of capital, thus it is essential to quantify the historical and expected return on capital. Accounting and inflationary distortions should be removed to correctly measure performance. It is cash flow that matters most, not earnings. We are experts in financial performance analysis.


Your share price along with those of your suppliers, customers and competitors offers invaluable information about the market’s expectations for the future of your industry. We can value your forward plan and assess the differences between potential value and actual price. Successful companies don’t often appreciate the magnitude of the expectations embedded in their share price. We are experts in company valuation.


If business units and projects aren’t beating their cost of capital, then they aren’t creating economic value. We can help you value divisions, business units, regions, products and strategic decisions. Successful capital allocation requires reliable valuations and risk analysis. We are experts in company valuation and financial performance analysis. We will help you determine the value of your company and establish what it could be worth.

What We Do

  We analyse and value corporations and their divisions. We identify where value is being created and destroyed, which is essential to setting targets, budgeting, and capital allocation. We’ll help you determine the potential value of your company and its parts

  Sensitivity analysis helps connect operating targets to value creation potential. We’ll help you focus on the right metrics and quantify the value of potential improvements. We’ll help you quantify downside risk. You’ll gain a greater insight into the impact future scenarios could have on your company’s value.

  We value and advise on M&A plans and asset disposals. Most acquisitions destroy value for the acquirer. We’ll help you avoid that mistake. We will provide you with an independent view.

  We have many years of international experience advising asset managers on equity valuation. We can help you with investor relations and fine-tune your message to investors. Should you be paying dividends, buying back shares, or expanding? We can help with these decisions and how to communicate them.

  We model and value strategic projects. We help remove behavioural biases such as overconfidence and confirmation bias, using the rigorous techniques of Decision Analysis. Let robust scenario analysis make the decision, not your gut.

  We educate and train. We have vast experience teaching equity analysts, university students and company managers how to perform valuations and analyse financial performance. We can run an in-house training program for you, and analyse your businesses and projects as part of the training.

About Us

Approach

The first step in a typical project is the assessment and valuation of a corporation’s forward plan. A company should only grow if it can beat its cost of capital, thus it is essential to quantify its historical and expected return on capital.


The next step is to repeat the analysis for each division to identify where value is being created and destroyed. More granular analyses can be performed at the business unit, regional and product level. Benchmarking and sensitivity analysis help identify where the most value can be unlocked.


It is imperative to model the value and risk of highly uncertain strategic projects. Don’t allow egos, agendas and behavioral biases to stand in the way. Decision quality can be enhanced by employing the techniques of Decision Analysis.


What is the connection between company valuation and project analysis? 


Company Value = Book Value + Present Value of Economic Profits

Present Value of Economic Profits = NPV of present and future projects

Company Value = Book Value + NPV of present and future projects


If a company isn’t investing in positive NPV strategies, then it is limiting its value potential. If business units and projects aren’t beating their cost of capital, then they aren’t creating economic value, i.e., the NPV sum is zero or less. Every dollar invested should return more than a dollar in present value terms. We measure and advise on financial performance and how that should translate into corporate strategy, capital allocation and communication to investors.

Beyond Earnings

Beyond Earnings is targeted at investors, financial professionals, and students who want to improve their ability to analyze financial statements, forecast cash flows, and ultimately value a company.

Because earnings and P/E ratios are too unreliable for valuation, this book takes you beyond earnings and shows you how to apply the HOLT CFROI and Economic Profit framework in a step-by-step manner. A better measure of profitability results in improved capital allocation decisions and fundamental valuations.

This ground-breaking book offers the first practical in-depth discussion of how profitability and growth fade, and shows how to put this information to work right away. The authors introduce their trailblazing Fundamental Pricing Model which includes fade as an adjustable value driver and can be used to value the impact of business model disruption.

As the authors explain, the key to superior stock picking is understanding the expectations embedded in a stock’s price and having a clear view of whether the company can beat those expectations. The HOLT framework has been rigorously field tested for over 40 years by global investment professionals to help them make better stock picks and by corporate managers to understand the expectations embedded in their stock price.

Beyond Earnings is an indispensable guide for investors who want to improve their odds of outperforming the competition.


View on Amazon
Beyond Earnings Book Cover

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